By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter
THE PHILIPPINES should pursue a free trade agreement (FTA) with China to complement diplomatic work on a legally binding Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China, according to a diplomacy analyst.
Manila should also explore cooperation with its neighbor on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) as part of its policy toolkit to manage their relations, said Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy lecturer at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde.
The strategy could deepen their economic and technological engagement and serve national interests without compromising sovereignty, he added, even as he cautioned Manila to proceed with caution.
“Aside from forging a CoC in the South China Sea, which can serve as the cornerstone of promoting peaceful development within the disputed territories, we must also look into the possibility of forging an FTA with China,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
“Given that China is already positioning itself as an alternative for the US, and because it is our largest trading partner, then this agreement is something that our respective governments must explore,” he added.
Mr. Cortez sought intensified people-to-people exchanges in AI, where China is considered a global leader.
“China is the second key player in the global AI race,” he said. “There’s room for collaboration, especially in areas like tech infrastructure.”
However, he cautioned against overreliance on China and cited the need for strategic balance.
“Engaging in these areas offers benefits, but we must be wary of doing so too much or too quickly. A careful balancing act is needed to avoid dependence while leveraging opportunities,” he added.
The Philippines and China are marking the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations on June 9.
Formal relations started in 1975, when the late President Ferdinand E. Marcos, Sr. signed a joint communiqué with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in Beijing, marking Manila as one of the first Southeast Asian nations to normalize ties with Beijing amid the Cold War.
The Philippines is in the middle of a trade war between Beijing and Washington, caught between two economic giants whose rivalry is reshaping global supply chains and regional alliances.
Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo De Manila University, said China remains one of the Philippines’ top trading partners.
“This means the bulk of our economic activity is both dependent on access to Chinese markets and the global brands that rely on their supply chains,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
“While we wish to believe China values this as much as we do, hawkish elements of China mean they will keep pushing boundaries if they can afford it and will unironically complain when called out,” he added.
Meanwhile, Rommel C. Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies, said China has agreed to conclude negotiations for a legally binding CoC in the South China Sea by 2026, coinciding with the Philippines’ chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
“Its conclusion will depend on the details of the CoC, as the devil is always in the details,” he said in a Viber chat.
As chairman of the regional bloc next year, a role Mr. Banlaoi called “ministerial,” the Philippines could propose items in the coming ASEAN summits, but noted that it has no control over the outcomes since the bloc works on a consensus.
“The Philippines can use its chairmanship of ASEAN as a platform to raise its voice on various security issues in the region, like the South China Sea disputes,” he said.
Mr. Cortez said ASEAN meetings could be used as a launchpad for bilateral negotiations with China on a separate CoC, if regional consensus remains elusive. A pan-ASEAN-China CoC may take time.
“However, since we are the primary stakeholders in this quest, we can explore the possibility of forging first a bipartite/bilateral treaty with China, and we can use the ASEAN meetings next year as a platform to do initial discussions on how this can be forged,” he added.
But Mr. Juliano said several countries in ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific region have “found it prudent not to align themselves” with China or the US.
“Our divided loyalties complicate this for us, but our anxieties about the democratic backslide of the US are a good opportunity to finally forge an independent and genuine multilateral policy,” he said.
During the 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur last month, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., urged his fellow leaders to fast-track the adoption of a legally binding South China Sea CoC, warning that rising sea tensions and uncertainty threaten hard-won regional gains.
The South China Sea remains one of the region’s most volatile flashpoints given competing claims over it by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.
While ASEAN and China agreed to work on a Declaration of Conduct in 2002, progress toward a binding framework has been repeatedly delayed by legal, political and strategic differences.
