Two Asian countries have released their fourth quarter (Q4) 2024 GDP performance data: Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.55% and Singapore’s 4.3%. Vietnam’s full year 2024 growth was 7% and Singapore’s was 3.9%. All other major economies have not reported their Q4 data yet.
This cements Vietnam as the fastest growing major economy (those in the list of the top 50 countries with the largest GDP size) in 2024. Trailing Vietnam as the fastest growing major economies in the world according to their average growth in Q1-Q3 were: India, 6.6%; the Philippines, 5.8%; Taiwan, 5.2%; Malaysia, 5.1%; Indonesia, 5%; and, China, 4.9%.
What is noticeable about these seven Asian economies is that all of them are consumers of a great deal of coal. For instance, the coal/total (electricity) generation ratio of these countries in 2023 were as follows: India, 75%; Indonesia and the Philippines, 62%; China, 61%; Vietnam, 47%; Malaysia, 43%; and, Taiwan, 42%.
The average GDP growth from 2015 to 2023 of these seven Asian nations was also high: Vietnam, 6%; India and China, 5.8%; the Philippines, 4.7%; Indonesia, 4.1%; Malaysia, 3.9%; and, Taiwan, 3%.
In contrast, countries which have had a progressive reduction in their coal capacity from 2007 to 2023 — the US, Germany, Spain, the UK, Poland, Australia — have had low growth, except Poland with growth of 3.7%. Turkey is more like Asia, with rising coal use and high growth of 5% (see Table 1).
In Q1-Q3 2024, Australia’s growth was at 1%, the UK’s 0.6%, and Germany shrank by 0.2%. They have experienced crawling growth or degrowth as they continue to decarbonize.
Another trend that I noticed is that countries that shifted away from coal experienced higher or flat inflation rates — Australia, Canada, Germany, the UK, the US — while countries that increased their coal use experienced lower inflation rates — Taiwan, China, South Korea, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Russia, and Turkey (see Table 2).
GNPD COAL PLANTThe GN Power Dinginin (GNPD) plant was the first coal plant I ever saw. Located in Brgy. Dinginin, Mariveles, Bataan, I was able to visit it on Nov. 6, 2024. It is a super-critical coal plant, with an installed capacity of 1,450 megawatts (MW) and a dependable capacity of 1,336 MW (668 MW x 2 units). It was commissioned for commercial operation in 2022, so it is just two years old. It is the largest, the newest, the most efficient, high efficiency low emission (HELE) coal plant in the Philippines. It is owned by the Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP).
Its sister power plant in the same barangay, the GN Mariveles Energy Center (GMEC), is a sub-critical pulverized coal plant with a dependable capacity of 632 MW (316 MW x 2 units). It was commissioned in 2013, so it is 11 years old.
Because GNPD is new, with few unscheduled shutdowns and a high-capacity factor, it can produce electricity at low prices. It has been winning in Meralco’s recently held competitive selection process (CSP) or bidding for power supply agreements (PSA).
On Aug. 27, 2024, Meralco opened bidding for 600 MW of baseload capacity. The winners with levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) were SMC’s Masinloc Power for 500 MW and GNPD for 100 MW with all-in rates of P5.60/kilowatt-hour (kWh) and P5.74/kWh, respectively. These were way below Meralco’s reserved price of P7.26/kWh. And last September, when Meralco held another CSP for 400 MW of baseload, GNPD led with P7.6816/kWh.
Among the things I saw at GNPD were the following.
1. There was no dark or black smoke coming out of tall chimneys that we often see in images on social media or search engines. Those are coal plant models from the 1940s to 1970s.
2. There were huge conveyor belts that transport coal from cargo ships, and huge cranes that can unload about 32 tons of coal per hour so that a bulk carrier can leave the shore after two days.
3. There are huge domes for coal storage with open entrances for big loader machines to come and go. Coal storage is not fully enclosed, unlike diesel or LNG storage, and this translates to lower cost.
4. The very hot water that is condensed from the steam produced during the power generation process is treated and cooled in a big deep pool before being released back to the sea.
5. There is a modern control room operated and monitored by engineers.
We need more big, modern, high-capacity factor and low-cost coal plants, at least among those approved by the Department of Energy prior to the moratorium laid out in 2020 on greenfield projects. The Atimonan HELE coal plant by MGen in Quezon province is a good candidate.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.
